Barker Ltd - Recommendation

Overall the farm seems to be in a weak state. Two main options: to sell and moving into the crisp market. There are many factors that success depends on such as the finance will be raised favoringly whether or not, maybe other family members who agree to sell the farm refuse to put money into the business. The reliability of Romily's business plan is also an important factor, if the market research she took was not accurate, it may lead the business into a very risky and dangerous situation, and the changes in customers' tastes in the future are difficult to predict.

My recommendation is that the movement into the crisp production is advisable. As I mentioned the above, the advantages of the movement is more virtual than the disadvantages. There's a vary weak financial position, so I suggest that not only Romily, but other family members should put their own money as the finance support the business of crisp production. Depite the probability of success of moving to crisp production is 70% (shows from the dicision tree), however, this is a long-term plan and it still seems to be risky if there's lack of finance, shortage of cash and economic recession. Aslo, the alternaive cost -- selling the farm by 1.4 million pounds is quite attractive, that means some family members will strongly disagree the movement into crisp production , and they may casuse troubles which make the dicision to take too long time. Anyway, moving into crisp production seems more likely to be worthwhile if Romily is able manage the business more efficiently, and they can keep the Barker brand name which can motivate the whole members in the business.